ORLANDO, Fla. – In spite of all the adversity the University of Central Florida has faced this season, good fortune could be on the horizon.

UCF will host the SMU Mustangs for its next American Athletic Conference game, but it’s a matchup that has heavily favored Saturday’s visiting team. The Mustangs have won the last seven games against UCF, including a conference-opening, 56-51 victory in Texas on Dec. 27, 2017.

But SMU has succumbed to an injury bug that the Knights (16-9, 7-6 in American Athletic Conference) are all too familiar with. The Knights host SMU without center Tacko Fall and guards Chance McSpadden and Aubrey Dawkins, all three out for the season.

Without those three, UCF has gained some momentum. The Knights have won back-to-back games over the Memphis Tigers and the USF Bulls while SMU (15-11, 5-8 in AAC) has lost its last four.

The Mustangs (15-11, 5-8 in AAC) dominate their all-time series with UCF, holding an 11-3 advantage.

Here’s what to expect in the Knights’ pivotal matchup against eighth-place SMU. Tipoff is Saturday morning at 11 a.m. in CFE Arena. The game will be broadcast on ESPNU.

–

SMU Leading Scorer Shake Milton Is Day-to-day

The Mustangs have been left vulnerable over their last four games, as leading scorer Shake Milton has been sidelined with a hand injury. He’s listed as day-to-day, but his contributions have been missed.

Without Milton, the Mustangs miss out on a 6-foot-5, do-it-all guard who is second in scoring in the American. In addition to 18.0 points per game, Milton has also recorded 4.7 rebounds per game and 4.4 assists per game this season.

He’s an effective scorer, shooting 44.9 percent from the field, including 46.2 percent from 2-point range and 43.4 percent from long range. Those numbers have helped tab him to be a projected first-rounder in the upcoming NBA draft.

During his absence, SMU has failed to reach their average of about 71 points per game. In four losses, the Mustangs have reached 51 points, 58 points and 67 points twice.

“Well you’re talking about an All-American-caliber player, you know, and future [National Basketball Association] player,” Knights head coach Johnny Dawkins said before practice on Feb. 16. “So you’re talking about one of the best players in the country coming out. So, of course, he’s gonna present problems for us, you know, defensively…

“… he’s an excellent 3-point shooter. I think he’s shooting a little over 50 percent in league play, from behind the arc. That’s phenomenal. He also is just amazing at running a team. He doesn’t make very many mistakes with the basketball. So you’re talking about an accomplished player. So we really have to give him a lot of attention and a lot of respect.”

Like UCF, SMU Has Battled Injuries All Season

Milton hasn’t been the only player the Mustangs have missed. The Mustangs lost two players to season-ending injuries in late January, according to a report by SportsDay’s Adam Grosbard. Third-leading scorer Jarrey Foster and role player Everett Ray are both out for the season with lower-body injuries.

Additionally, starting center Ethan Chargois missed one game, a 76-51 loss to the then-No. 6 Cincinnati Bearcats, after suffering a foot injury. He played the next game against Memphis, posting 8 points and 3 rebounds in 21 minutes.

The Mustangs are still dangerous, though. Behind USF transfer Jahmal McMurray, SMU has a 6-foot guard who’s not afraid to shoot 3s. McMurray recorded a career-high 33 points on 12-for-25 shooting, including 9-for-19 from 3-point range, in a 70-67 loss to Memphis on Feb. 14.

It’s not the first time McMurray has shot double-digit 3s in his career, but it is the most he’s ever attempted. McMurray has tried double-digit 3s just three other times in his career–twice this season and once in his first-ever collegiate game as a Bull.

“I mean, they still have a lot of guys that can shoot the ball well,” Knights guard B.J. Taylor said before practice on Feb. 16. “Three or four guys out there that are strong shooters, shooting good percentages from 3, so we gotta get out there and tag them on the 3-point shots, and we gotta make sure we get defensive rebounds.”

SMU Is Very Perimeter-oriented Team

The Mustangs present the Knights a unique lineup challenge, as they play a very perimeter-oriented game. Five of SMU’s double-digit scorers are guards, with Chargois and his 10.2 points per game being the exception.

Taylor only specifically recalls one other opponent in recent memory who was as guard-heavy.

“There’s a few teams we played before. Villanova [University] had pretty much five perimeter guys–a lot of teams that played spread out like that with five perimeter guys,” Taylor said.

Facing a smaller SMU lineup is a matchup the Knights aren’t afraid to meet, though. UCF has depended on its defense all season, as that has been the one constant between last season’s team and this year’s.

The Knights are fourth in the nation in opposing field-goal percentage (0.389) and third in opposing points per game (61.2). UCF has also become especially adept at defending the 3 ball. Through 13 conference games, the Knights are first in opposing 3s attempted per game (18.0) and third in opposing 3-point percentage (0.321).

On the other side, SMU has a host of shooters who can score from 3-point range. If Milton plays, the Mustangs have four players who combine for 20.7 3s per game and average 44 percent from distance.

Redshirt senior A.J. Davis said these are the games UCF is built for.

“I think we have a lot of good perimeter defenders. You know, we’re built for defensive games, you know, for tough perimeter players,” Davis said before practice on Feb. 16. “It’s just a matter of getting out to the 3-point shooting. They shoot a lot of 3s, and they make a lot of 3s–you know, running ’em off the line, making ’em take tough shots.”

For more on the Knights, as they take on the Mustangs in a late-morning matchup, follow Victor Tan on Twitter at @NDR_VictorTan.

To contact Victor, you can email him at vtan@newdayreview.